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Prediction-market notes and analysis

Articles about prediction markets, event contracts, forecast specifications, market interpretation, resolution criteria, and the practical discipline of specifying uncertain outcomes clearly.

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Articles

All articles

Short, source-based articles on defining, reviewing, and proposing prediction markets.

Article

1 September 2026

What Do Historic Prediction-Market Resolution Disputes Teach Us?

Exact past cases involving elections, suits, performances, office-holders, invasions, agreements, publication timing, and changing data—and the drafting choices that can prevent similar disputes.

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Semantics

What “win,” “suit,” “perform,” and “agreement” mean

Ontology

Death, raids, and events that do not fit assumed categories

Evidence

Publication timing, revisions, and conflicting sources

Prevention

A nine-step pre-listing and review checklist

Article

30 August 2026

Where Can I Find Historical Prediction-Market Definitions?

Where to download historical display questions, descriptions, resolution criteria, source fields, outcomes, and dates across different prediction-market venues.

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Download

A historical definition dataset on Hugging Face

Definition

Questions, descriptions, sources, outcomes, and timing

Hierarchy

How to distinguish a source field from fallback rules

Verification

How to check an archive against venue terms and source records

Article

27 August 2026

What Does It Take to Create a New Prediction Market?

What an event contract is, how the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) describes it, and which terms and conditions define the underlying event, outcome set, source hierarchy, settlement methodology, payout, and edge cases.

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Definition

Derivative linked to an observable event or contingency

Terms

Underlying, parameters, outcomes, and timing

Resolution

Sources, criteria, methodology, and payout

Edge cases

Data failures, delays, cancellations, and review

Article

27 August 2026

Is My Proposed Prediction Market Legal?

What the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) framework means for event-contract classification, manipulation resistance, trading prohibitions, position accountability, settlement integrity, and public-interest limits.

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CFTC definition

Function, payment, settlement, and contract structure

Integrity

Market price, underlying event, and settlement-source risks

CFTC controls

Listing requirements, surveillance, conduct rules, and exposure controls

U.S. public interest

Current federal statute and CFTC limits, plus proposed policy changes

Article

28 August 2026

How Can I Get a New Prediction Market Listed on Polymarket or Kalshi?

A practical guide to preparing a venue-ready market proposal, submitting it to Polymarket and Kalshi, and separating listing review from legal or regulatory approval.

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Polymarket

Suggest the market to the markets team via X

Kalshi

Submit a detailed idea through the market suggestion feed

Specification

Define outcomes, sources, timing, and edge cases

Boundaries

A listing decision is not a legal opinion

Article

29 August 2026

What Are Permissionless Prediction Markets?

How users can create markets without waiting for a Polymarket or Kalshi listing decision, and why resolution, liquidity, access, and legal review still matter.

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Creation

A user or wallet publishes without case-by-case listing approval

Resolution

A creator, source, oracle, or arbitrator decides the outcome

Liquidity

Open supply does not guarantee traders, capital, or useful prices

Boundaries

Technical access is not legal clearance or unrestricted participation