Decision support example
Launch-region decision market set.
A compact example showing how a decision need can be translated into a small set of conditional market questions.
- Document type
- Decision Support Market Set
- Prepared for
- General strategy, governance, and product review
- Prepared by
- Christopher Maximilian Altmann
- Date / version
- May 3, 2026 / v0.1-example
Document status
This example is a non-legal decision-support market design sample. It is not legal advice, regulatory advice, investment advice, a trading recommendation, a filing, or an instruction to operate or list a market.
Decision package
Decision need
A team is choosing whether to launch Product A in Europe first or North America first.
Decision variable
`{launch_region}` is either Europe-first or North-America-first, as recorded in the final launch decision memo.
Outcome metric
New annual contract value from Product A in the first two full quarters after launch, using the final finance-approved report.
Conditional market 1
If Product A launches in Europe first, will first-two-quarter new annual contract value exceed `{threshold}`?
Conditional market 2
If Product A launches in North America first, will first-two-quarter new annual contract value exceed `{threshold}`?
Invalid / review
Review if the launch region is mixed, the launch is cancelled, the threshold is not set before the decision, or the finance source cannot isolate Product A.
How to read the package
The pair does not make the decision. It gives stakeholders a structured way to compare expectations under two decision branches.