Binary market transformation example

Turning non-binary market ideas into binary definitions.

A compact example showing how date-based, categorical, multi-select, scalar, and combinatorial ideas can be converted into precise binary market questions.

Document type
Binary Market Transformation Package
Prepared for
General strategy, product, governance, and market-design review
Prepared by
Christopher Maximilian Altmann
Date / version
May 3, 2026 / v0.1-example

Document status

This example is a non-legal binary market transformation sample. It is not legal advice, regulatory advice, investment advice, a trading recommendation, a CFTC filing, or an instruction to operate or list a market. The questions are illustrative candidates only; final source tables, thresholds, fallback rules, invalid criteria, participant restrictions, and listing terms would require separate review.

Client input

"We have several market ideas for a 2027 product launch, but many are not naturally Yes/No. We want to see how date-based, categorical, multi-select, numerical, and bundled strategy questions can be translated into binary markets."

Transformation output

The output is a quick-to-read transformation package, not a full event contract specification. Each transformation shows the original input shape, the conversion pattern, candidate binary questions, and high-level resolution criteria.

Transformation 01

Date-based

Input idea
When will Product A reach general availability: Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4, or later?
Pattern
Transform the timing question into deadline-based binaries with mutually understandable calendar cutoffs.
Binary definitions
  1. Will Product A reach general availability on or before 31 March 2027?
  2. Will Product A reach general availability on or before 30 June 2027?
  3. Will Product A reach general availability on or before 30 September 2027?
  4. Will Product A reach general availability on or before 31 December 2027?
Resolution source
Use the first official public release note, status-page announcement, or product documentation page that states general availability.
Yes / No / Invalid
Yes if the source confirms general availability on or before the deadline. No if no qualifying source publication exists by the deadline. Invalid / review if the product is renamed, merged, cancelled, or released only to a materially restricted audience.

Transformation 02

Categorical

Input idea
Which launch channel will be the primary go-to-market channel: direct sales, cloud marketplace, partner resale, or self-service?
Pattern
Transform each category into a separate binary claim, with one source and one dominance rule.
Binary definitions
  1. Will direct sales be the largest launch-channel source of new annual contract value for Product A in calendar year 2027?
  2. Will cloud marketplace transactions be the largest launch-channel source of new annual contract value for Product A in calendar year 2027?
  3. Will partner resale be the largest launch-channel source of new annual contract value for Product A in calendar year 2027?
  4. Will self-service purchases be the largest launch-channel source of new annual contract value for Product A in calendar year 2027?
Resolution source
Use the client's final internal revenue attribution report for Product A, or another source selected before trading or governance use.
Yes / No / Invalid
Yes if the category has strictly higher attributed new annual contract value than every other listed category. No if another category is higher. Invalid / review if categories are not tracked consistently, if a tie rule is missing, or if the attribution source changes materially.

Transformation 03

Multi-select

Input idea
Which launch requirements will be completed before general availability: SOC 2 report, EU data residency, SSO, audit logs, and usage-based billing?
Pattern
Transform each selectable requirement into an independent binary completion question.
Binary definitions
  1. Will Product A have a completed SOC 2 Type II report before general availability?
  2. Will Product A support EU data residency before general availability?
  3. Will Product A support SAML or OIDC single sign-on before general availability?
  4. Will Product A support administrator audit logs before general availability?
  5. Will Product A support usage-based billing before general availability?
Resolution source
Use controlled internal release readiness records, public documentation, or compliance artifacts specified before use.
Yes / No / Invalid
Yes if the specific requirement is complete and available before general availability. No if it is incomplete, unavailable, or released after general availability. Invalid / review if the requirement is materially redefined or cannot be verified from the selected source.

Transformation 04

Scalar / numerical

Input idea
How much annual recurring revenue will Product A generate in 2027?
Pattern
Transform the scalar value into threshold binaries. Thresholds should be chosen before use and spaced around decision-relevant values.
Binary definitions
  1. Will Product A generate more than $1 million in annual recurring revenue in calendar year 2027?
  2. Will Product A generate more than $3 million in annual recurring revenue in calendar year 2027?
  3. Will Product A generate more than $5 million in annual recurring revenue in calendar year 2027?
  4. Will Product A generate more than $10 million in annual recurring revenue in calendar year 2027?
Resolution source
Use the final finance-approved annual recurring revenue report for Product A for calendar year 2027.
Yes / No / Invalid
Yes if the final value is strictly greater than the threshold. No if it is less than or equal to the threshold. Invalid / review if Product A revenue is not separately tracked, if the metric definition changes, or if one-time services revenue is included contrary to the definition.

Transformation 05

Combinatorial

Input idea
Should the team launch Product A in Europe first with a self-service motion, or in North America first with a sales-led motion?
Pattern
Transform each bundled strategy into a binary conjunction, then optionally add component binaries so users can see which part of the bundle is uncertain.
Binary definitions
  1. Will Product A launch first in Europe and generate more than 40% of 2027 new annual contract value from self-service purchases?
  2. Will Product A launch first in North America and generate more than 40% of 2027 new annual contract value from sales-led purchases?
  3. Will Product A launch first in Europe?
  4. Will Product A generate more than 40% of 2027 new annual contract value from self-service purchases?
  5. Will Product A launch first in North America?
  6. Will Product A generate more than 40% of 2027 new annual contract value from sales-led purchases?
Resolution source
Use launch-region records for first commercial availability and final finance-approved channel attribution for calendar year 2027.
Yes / No / Invalid
Yes for a bundled question only if every component condition is satisfied. No if any component condition is false. Invalid / review if launch region, channel attribution, or annual contract value is not defined consistently before use.

Design notes

One question, one truth condition

Each binary definition should have one clear truth condition. If a question bundles several conditions, the conjunction should be explicit.

Thresholds before use

Numerical thresholds should be chosen before the question is used, not after source values or internal reports become visible.

Invalid is not a shortcut

Invalid / review conditions should be reserved for source failure, material definition changes, or missing preconditions. They should not replace ordinary No outcomes.