Market question development example
AI data-center electricity demand market question package.
A compact example showing how a broad topic can be turned into a short set of binary market questions with resolution timing, source hierarchy, and Yes / No / Invalid criteria.
- Document type
- Market Question Development Package
- Prepared for
- General research, strategy, governance, and product review
- Prepared by
- Christopher Maximilian Altmann
- Date / version
- May 3, 2026 / v0.1-example
Document status
This example is a non-legal market-question development sample. It is not legal advice, regulatory advice, investment advice, a trading recommendation, a CFTC filing, or an instruction to operate or list a market. The questions are illustrative candidates only; final thresholds, source tables, fallback rules, invalid criteria, participant restrictions, and listing terms would require separate review.
Client input
"We are interested in AI data centers, electricity demand, and grid strain. We want market questions that are quick to read and useful for tracking whether the issue becomes materially important by 2030."
Output at a glance
The output is not a full event contract specification. It is a question-development package: a compact set of candidate binary questions, each with a source idea, resolution time, and high-level Yes / No / Invalid treatment for further review.
Question 01
U.S. Commercial Electricity Sales
- Market question
- Will annual U.S. commercial-sector retail electricity sales exceed `{commercial_sales_mwh}` MWh for calendar year 2030?
- Resolution time
- After EIA publishes final annual 2030 retail-sales data.
- Sources
- Primary: EIA Electric Power Annual / Electricity Data Browser. Supporting: final Form EIA-861 sales to ultimate customers data.
- Yes / No / Invalid
- Yes if the final commercial-sector value is greater than the threshold. No if it is less than or equal to the threshold. Invalid / review if EIA discontinues or materially redefines the metric without a comparable replacement.
- Why included
- Captures broad load growth from data centers and other commercial customers without relying on a weak national data-center-only source.
Question 02
PJM 2030 Peak Load Forecast
- Market question
- Will PJM's long-term load forecast published by `{forecast_publication_deadline}` show RTO summer peak load for 2030 above `{pjm_peak_mw}` MW?
- Resolution time
- After the controlling PJM Long-Term Load Forecast report and data tables are published.
- Sources
- Primary: PJM Long-Term Load Forecast data XLS. Fallback: PJM report PDF if the data file is unavailable or materially inconsistent.
- Yes / No / Invalid
- Yes if the controlling PJM source reports a 2030 RTO summer peak value greater than the threshold. No if it reports a value less than or equal to the threshold. Invalid / review if PJM changes the forecast definition or no 2030 RTO value is available.
- Why included
- PJM is a practical regional focus because data-center load growth is especially relevant in parts of its footprint.
Question 03
U.S. Natural Gas Generation
- Market question
- Will U.S. utility-scale net electricity generation from natural gas exceed `{gas_generation_mwh}` MWh for calendar year 2030?
- Resolution time
- After EIA publishes final annual 2030 generation data.
- Sources
- Primary: EIA Electric Power Annual / Electricity Data Browser. Supporting: EIA Electric Power Monthly final annual tables.
- Yes / No / Invalid
- Yes if the final annual natural-gas generation value is greater than the threshold. No if it is less than or equal to the threshold. Invalid / review if the fuel category or sector definition is materially changed.
- Why included
- Tracks whether higher electricity demand is associated with a larger gas-generation outcome, while keeping the settlement source official and auditable.
Question 04
Commercial Electricity Price
- Market question
- Will the U.S. average retail electricity price for commercial customers exceed `{commercial_price_cents_per_kwh}` cents/kWh for calendar year 2030?
- Resolution time
- After EIA publishes final annual 2030 average retail price data.
- Sources
- Primary: EIA Electric Power Annual / Electricity Data Browser. Supporting: final EIA-861 retail sales and revenue data if calculation review is needed.
- Yes / No / Invalid
- Yes if the final commercial-sector price is greater than the threshold. No if it is less than or equal to the threshold. Invalid / review if the source no longer publishes a comparable national commercial-sector price.
- Why included
- Adds a price-impact question without requiring a claim about whether data centers caused the price change.
Question 05
Reliability-Risk Classification
- Market question
- Will NERC classify any assessment area covering PJM or Northern Virginia as elevated risk or high risk for the 2030 summer season in a published reliability assessment?
- Resolution time
- After the controlling NERC assessment for the 2030 summer season is published.
- Sources
- Primary: NERC Summer Reliability Assessment or Long-Term Reliability Assessment, depending on final contract timing. Fallback: the other NERC assessment if the primary assessment is unavailable.
- Yes / No / Invalid
- Yes if the controlling NERC assessment assigns elevated-risk or high-risk status to an in-scope area for summer 2030. No if no in-scope area receives either classification. Invalid / review if NERC changes the classification taxonomy or area boundaries in a way that affects comparability.
- Why included
- Captures a grid-reliability signal as a qualitative binary question, but it would need tighter area and taxonomy wording before listing.
Source authorities
| Source | Use in package | Link |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. Energy Information Administration | Official U.S. electricity data for retail sales, generation, prices, and annual survey files. | EIA electricity data |
| EIA Form EIA-861 | Supporting final data for electricity sales, revenue, customer counts, and sector-level review. | EIA-861 data files |
| PJM | Regional long-term load forecasts and forecast data tables for PJM-wide or zonal demand questions. | PJM load forecasts |
| NERC | Reliability-risk classifications and assessment-area context for grid-stress questions. | NERC reliability assessments |
Deliberately excluded
Direct national data-center load
A question such as "Will U.S. data centers consume more than X TWh in 2030?" is intuitive, but it should not be the first candidate unless an official, stable, and settlement-ready source is identified.
Causal claims
The questions avoid asking whether AI data centers caused a specific outcome. They observe measurable electricity, forecast, price, generation, or reliability outputs.
Final listing terms
Thresholds, precise source table references, fallback precedence, and review procedures would be finalized only if a question moves into a full event contract specification.